E20 Woodstock. Lithiumstock @MorganStanley - Part One
In the latest episode of Lithium-ion Rocks!, Howard Klein and Rodney Hooper take a look at the latest Lithium market happenings. S2 E20.
SIGNIFICANT LITHIUM PRICE DOWNSIDE RISK.
THE LONG-TERM PAIN OF NEW SUPPLY.
SQM TO DEFINE GLOBAL LITHIUM PRICES. WHAT IS THE SWEET SPOT?
DECLINE OF LI PRICES IS JUST BEGINNING.
Lithium equities have fallen precipitously since late February 2018 as these and similar headlines entered the public domain from a global team of research analysts at Morgan Stanley which has amongst the most extensive breadth of coverage across the EV supply chain - from mining/chemical to cathode to battery to Autos.
Is the bear lithium price thesis underpinning their call correct? Or have they been “right for the wrong reasons” so far?
In Season 2 Episode 2, Rodney Hooper and Howard Klein interview Morgan Stanley’s Javier Martinez de Olcoz Cerdan who covers SQM, one of the largest, lowest cost lithium suppliers and has articulated aggressive supply expansion from their world class Salar da Atacama project.
Howard connected with Javier in March 2016 following SQM's 50% equity stake in Lithium America’s Cauchari-Olaroz in Argentina, an investment he looked at skeptically at the time as a ploy as SQM re-negotiated its Atacama concession with CORFO. Anyone invested in lithium shares interested in preserving their capital should have listened to Javier and the Morgan Stanley team, if not in February 2018 when they made their initial call, then perhaps in August that year, when their call on SQM exiting Argentina proved correct.
As Summer Time Blues have come and gone, will the Blood, Sweat & Tears continue into year-end? Please enjoy Part One of Lithium-ion Rocks! 20th episode, inspired by the 50th anniversary of the legendary Woodstock concert, With a Little Help From our Friend of the Devil, Santana Martinez, who saw early and told the world about a lithium Bad Moon Rising,
And please also visit the Lithium-ion Rocks “tip jar”: www.patreon.com/lithiumionrocks
0:00 - 4:20 - Introduction
4:21 - 10:40 - Javier background and the Morgan Stanley team
10:41-17:53 - Javier discusses lithium as a commodity and the importance of supply
17:54 - 30:30 - Discussion on SQM and technology
30:31-36:00 - Will new projects come into production with prices below $10k/t?
36:01 - 44:45 - SQM product mix Q2 and the future, gaining market share
44:46 - 51:20 - Global lithium markets, basis and arbitrage
51:21 – end Disclaimer
Not Investment Advice. Do Your Own Research
For important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures